Once Upon a Time (2.19 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Resurrection/ American Crime
Episode Order: 22
Competition:Sunday Night Football/?, Madam Secretary, The Simpsons & Brooklyn Nine-Nine
The Pros
• Season 3-B was practically even year to year and that’s after accounting for the general broadcast decline! That suggests a very positive trend and makes for a very promising Season 4 outlook!
• The split season treatment that did wonders for the show will continue this year.
• Even if I am not sure how relevant that is since most of the competition on this night comes from cable, broadcast wise the competition is likely to get easier with CBS replacing TAR with Madam Secretary.
• Frozen has created a considerable amount of hype for the show during this summer.
The Cons
• Even if 3-B had a wonderful trend, the season as a whole was still down 20%. For a serialized show like OUAT, that’s still very concerning regardless of the spin!
• OUAT’s audience is certainly a fickle one that will not watch if it doesn’t like the current arc. So while Frozen appears to have created enough hype around it, a poor execution may push viewers away. Besides, we still have no idea what’s the arc to be covered in 4-B, so there is potential for one as poorly received as the never land one.
The Verdict: Maybe I am being biased here but I tend to think that the show really got its act together in 3-B, and the ratings do support this. I think OUAT will be ok during fall and maybe even have some episodes up year to year. Perhaps its greatest challenge will be finding an arc worthy enough of 4-B, when the comparisons will get trickier. I say it eventually manages to do so and that the ship gets steadied, with OUAT taking a drop on par with the overall broadcasters.
The Guess: 1.97 (-10%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average