пятница, 22 августа 2014
20:25

Прогнозы

TheFurry

Gotham (New Show)

Timeslot: Mondays at 8, FOX

Lead-in: Local Programming

Lead-out: Sleepy Hollow

Episode Order: 16 episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, 2 Broke Girls & Mom, The Originals, Monday Night Football


The Pros:
• Major hype and build-up should ensure high initial sampling
• Strong promotional push from FOX
• Compatible pairing with Sleepy Hollow
• Despite a generally strong competition, all 3 competing hours are female leaning, which means there is a very good chance this show can conquer the male eyeballs.

The Cons:
• Having to face The Big Bang Theory for the first six weeks (including a full one hour episode against the premiere) will be very tough and could very well limit the aforementioned high initial sampling
• Even though the broadcast competition is indeed female heavy, it will have to face the very male skewing Monday Night Football
• History has shown that shows with this much build-up interest pre-season also tend to be the shows that attract more of the “disappointment” commentaries, which are never good for the show’s word of mouth.

The Verdict: Even though I am not entirely convinced that this show will be the answer to all the prayers that FOX is hoping it to be, I am still reasonably confident that it gets renewed, even though I see it being more of an Agents of Shield type of hit than an outright megahit. I do however remain troubled by the effect the big bang theory might have here.

The Guess: I say it equals Sleepy Hollow’s year ago performance (after accounting for overall decline), which considering how much worse FOX is doing, would be a major win. A 2.36

Potential for Major Deviation: High – I don’t think an explosion to mega hit status is out of the realm of possibilities

Sleepy Hollow (2.61 Last Year)

Timeslot: Mondays at 9, FOX

Lead-in: Gotham

Lead-out: Local Programming

Episode Order: 18 episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, Scorpion, Jane the Virgin, Monday Night Football


The Pros:
• A more compatible and likely higher rated lead-in from Gotham
• Season 1 was very well received up until the end and FOX has made sure to repeat it plenty of times so it is possible that there has been some catch up cable type of phenomena

The Cons:
• Scorpion is likely more compatible competition to it than the comedies were last year
• The show finished way lower than it started last year and one has to wonder what would have really happened to it had it aired the entire season, especially seeing how much FOX has declined since Sleepy Hollow was on the air.
• The limited series things in which hit shows come up for one season but then stay off the air for 9 months or so hasn’t really been working well (see Under the Dome and The Following).

The Verdict: I am on a loss here. I am not sure if The Following and Under the Dome, two shows critically destroyed during their freshman seasons, are really the best comparisons here. Yet, I also feel bad for ignoring them. What’s more is that unlike those shows, Sleepy Hollow really had a fall off at the end of its season inaugural season. On the other hand, there is that pairing with Gotham which I am sure will help quite a bit (the show was airing from sub 2.0s Almost Human towards the end).

The Guess: The Following fell 40%. I won’t ignore it but I won’t go close to it either. 2.07 (-21%)

Potential for Major Deviation: Average


Scorpion (New Show)

Timeslot: Mondays at 9, CBS

Lead-in: Mom

Lead-out: NCIS Los Angeles

Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars, The Voice/?/The Voice, Sleepy Hollow/The Following, Jane the Virgin, Monday Night Football

The Pros:
• Big promotional push from CBS and big vote of confidence breaking up the tradition of the Monday comedy block for it
• TBBT lead-in for the first episode, which should at least guarantee the show is sampled
• Despite strong competition, the hour is majorly dominated by the W18-49 audience that is split between the voice and dancing with the stars. There should be room for a smart procedural that captures the male audience that is not interested in the fantasies of Sleepy Hollow.

The Cons:
• The competition is fierce (albeit apart from Sleepy Hollow, it may not be that much compatible)
• It’s a drama airing out of a moderately rated comedy (Mom), which has proved to be troublesome for plenty of other dramas in the past

The Verdict: Scorpion really is a wildcard that go easily go way above or way below any line that I could come up with. I think that, at the very least, CBS will ensure the show is properly sampled. After than that, it will have to sink or swim on its own merits and guessing whether or not it is able to do that is a big gamble. I am going on a limb here and say it works and scores a Season 2.

The Guess: Equals Person of Interest freshman season from two years ago (after accounting for the overall decline since then), resulting in a solid 2.07 for CBS

Potential for Major Deviation: High (Extremely high!!)


The Originals (0.90 Last Year)


Timeslot: Mondays at 8,CW

Lead-in: Local Programming

Lead-out: Jane the Virgin

Episode Order: 22 episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, 2 Broke Girls & Mom, Gotham, Monday Night Football

The Pros
• The competition from FOX and ABC Family should get easier or, at the very least, less W18-34 leaning, which is where The Original’s demo strength comes from and it’s not like the show wasn’t used to facing the voice already.

The Cons
• Moving to a new night
• Synergies with lead-out Jane the Virgin are likely to be much less of a help than lead-out Supernatural last year (even if it improves somehow at midseason when something else shows up Mondays at 9)
• The Originals fell considerably during the winter and spring episodes making a comeback to fall episodes seem unlikely

The Verdict: I think The Originals will be hurt and I really don’t see it returning to last year’s numbers. More than the new timeslot, I worry about the very troublesome spring trend. I choose to believe it was all a bit blown out of proportion between all the W18-34 it suddenly came its way and the DST hits that took down the CW as a whole, particularly the 8pm hour. I think the show will be down, yes, but certainly not out, and it will still do decent business for the CW.

The Guess: 0.63 (-29%)

Potential for Major Deviation: Average

Jane the Virgin (New Show)


Timeslot: Mondays at 9, CW

Lead-in: The Originals

Lead-out: Local Programming

Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes

Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, Scorpion, Sleepy Hollow, Monday Night Football

The Pros
• Despite a major internet backslash upon the pickup, the critics have been surprisingly “okay” about this show.
• The Originals is a decent lead-in and should provide plenty of W18-34 to sample this show.
• Hart of Dixie, which is probably the most comparable show out there with this one, has managed to survive four seasons on the CW.

The Cons
• Critics may do not hate it as much as expected, but the overwhelming reaction to the show is still bad.
• The show really doesn’t fit the overall viewership the CW seems to have these days.
• Hart of Dixie may have survived 4 years on the CW but the CW from four years ago was ridiculously weaker than the CW of today, in which under-performers can easily be cut. Besides, it’s not like the CW doesn’t have plenty of backup shows ready to fill in.
• The Originals may be a high rated lead-in, but is it really that compatible?
• This show is clearly going after the W18-34 audience, but that audience will be pretty busy with the voice and dancing with the stars already. Is there really room for this one at the same time?

The Verdict: I don’t see this show lasting the full season. The competition argument is just too compelling here and like said above, there are plenty of backups ready to come. I can understand the Hart of Dixie comparison but this strikes me more like an Emily Owens type of situation than an Hart of Dixie type. And we all know how that ended up. (Side note: If the Flash is a major hit, I wouldn’t be surprised if Supernatural comes back to Monday to help the Originals restoring the Tuesday pair from last season while The Flash launches iZombie or The Messengers).

The Guess: 0.30

Potential for Major Deviation: Low

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13.02.2024 в 01:37

Гость
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